"Tempted But No Thank You": Why Michael Burry Won't Short SpaceX Despite a $2.8 Trillion Valuation

There are few investors in the world whose words move markets like Michael Burry's.

You probably know the story. The guy who saw the housing crash coming when almost no one else did. The one who bet against subprime mortgages and won big, so big they made a movie about it. The Big Short wasn't just a book and a film; it was a warning label that Burry has been wearing ever since.

So when Burry speaks, people listen.

And this week, he spoke about SpaceX.

The rocket-and-satellite company just pulled off the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion and hitting the Nasdaq with a valuation that would make your head spin. Within days, SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) had surged 50% above its $135 IPO price, pushing its market cap to a staggering $2.8 trillion.

Burry's take? He's tempted to bet against it. Very tempted.

But here's the twist: he's not going to do it. At least not yet.

"Tempted by that one," he wrote on Substack. "But no thank you."

Let me walk you through exactly what Burry said, why he passed, and what it tells us about the market we're living in right now.

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What Exactly Did Michael Burry Say About SpaceX?

On June 16, 2026, Burry published a Substack post that sent ripples through the financial world. It wasn't a long post. It wasn't filled with complex financial jargon. But it said a lot.

"Neither short nor, ahem, long"

Let's start with the most important line:

"I am not involved with SpaceX now. Neither short nor, ahem, long."

Burry wanted to shut down the rumors immediately. There had been chatter on Discord and social media that he was secretly shorting SpaceX. He wasn't. He's not long either. He's on the sidelines, watching, waiting, and thinking.

But here's the thing: he wants to short it.

The Options He Reviewed – And Why He Passed

Burry said he reviewed several bearish options trades tied to SpaceX but ultimately passed on all of them.

Here's what he found:

Source: Burry's Substack post

The December 2026 put at $6.75 caught his attention. That's the one he was tempted by. A $6.75 bet that SPCX would fall below $100 by the end of the year. Not a crazy bet, right?

But he passed.

"Tempted by that one. But no thank you."

Instead, he offered a prediction: "With any luck SPCX will settle up here in the mid-$200s, and vol will drain out of put option chain."

Translation: Burry thinks the stock might trade sideways in the mid-$200s for a while, and when that happens, the options premiums (the "vol," or volatility) will come down. And then, maybe then, he'll reconsider.

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Breaking Down Burry's SpaceX Valuation Critique

Here's where things get really interesting.

Burry didn't just say "options are expensive." He went after the valuation itself. And he did it in classic Burry fashion, with colorful language and devastating logic.

"A Small Space Company, a Niche Telecom, a Bedeviled Social Media Company"

Burry described SpaceX as:

"Fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a Coreweave-light."

Ouch.

Let's unpack that. SpaceX does four main things:

1. Rocket launches – yes, they're the leader here
2. Starlink satellite internet – the real money-maker
3. X (formerly Twitter) – the "bedeviled" social media company
4. xAI / Coreweave-light – AI infrastructure

Burry's point? Put all of that together, and you've got a collection of decent businesses. But $2.8 trillion decent? Not even close.

$2.8 Trillion vs. $20 Billion in Revenue

Here's the math that keeps Burry up at night:

SpaceX's market cap: $2.8 TRILLION

SpaceX's annual revenue: less than $20 BILLION

Think about that. The company is valued at over 140 times its revenue.

And here's the kicker: SpaceX is unprofitable. In 2025, the company posted a net loss of $4.94 billion.

Burry put it bluntly:

"At $2.8 TRILLION market cap, SpaceX, which is fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a Coreweave-light, has less than $20 billion in total revenue."

Now, I'm not saying revenue multiples are everything. Tesla traded at insane multiples for years. Amazon did too. Growth stocks often command premium valuations.

But $2.8 trillion for a company with less than $20 billion in revenue and no profits?

That's a lot of hope priced in.

Berkshire Hathaway "Eclipsed 2½ Times Over in Just Three Days"

Burry then made a comparison that really drives the point home:

"Berkshire Hathaway has been eclipsed 2½ times over in just three days. Berkshire Hathaway, painstakingly assembled over two century-old lives. The two greatest investors of our time."

Let that sink in.

Warren Buffett spent over 60 years building Berkshire Hathaway into a $1 trillion+ company. SpaceX surpassed that valuation in three days of trading.

Burry also noted that SpaceX's market cap could buy the combined fortunes of Page, Brin, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Ellison, Arnault, Huang, Buffett, and Ortega, and still have $1 trillion left over.

That's not a valuation. That's a statement.

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Why Burry Passed – The Options Were Too Expensive

Okay, so Burry thinks SpaceX is wildly overvalued. Why not just buy some puts and profit when the bubble pops?

Because options aren't free. And in Burry's view, they're too expensive to be worth the risk.

Understanding the Put Options Burry Reviewed

Let me break this down in plain English.

A put option gives you the right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock at a specific price (the "strike price") by a specific date.

Burry looked at put options with a $100 strike price. That means if he bought them, he'd have the right to sell SPCX at $100, regardless of how low the stock actually went.

If SPCX dropped to $50, those puts would be worth $50 each (minus what he paid for them). If SPCX stayed above $100, the puts would expire worthless.

Here's what Burry found:

• December 2028 put ($100 strike): $25 per contract
• June 2027 put ($100 strike): $13 per contract
• December 2026 put ($100 strike): $6.75 per contract

Why $6.75 for a December 2026 Put Wasn't Worth It

The December 2026 put was the cheapest, just $6.75. That's the one that tempted him.

But here's the problem: SPCX was trading around $212 when Burry wrote his post.

For the December 2026 puts to be profitable, SPCX would need to fall below $93.25 by the end of 2026 ($100 strike - $6.75 premium = $93.25 break-even).

That's a 56% drop from $212.

Is that possible? Sure. SpaceX could absolutely crash 56%. But is it probable enough to justify the bet? Burry didn't think so.

Especially not when he could just wait.

"With any luck SPCX will settle up here in the mid-$200s, and vol will drain out of put option chain."

Burry is playing the long game. He thinks the stock might consolidate in the mid-$200s, and when volatility comes down, the options will get cheaper. Then he'll strike.

Sometimes patience is the most powerful weapon in an investor's arsenal.

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The Bigger Picture – Burry's Broader Market Warning

Here's the thing about Burry's SpaceX comments: they're not really about SpaceX.

They're about the market. The speculation. The mania. The bubble.

"Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time"

Burry has been warning about a market bubble for months. He's called it the "greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things."

He's compared today's market to the late stages of the dot-com era. The Shiller CAPE ratio, a measure of stock market valuation, sat above 40 in May 2026, the highest since 2000 and more than double its long-run average.

And he's putting his money where his mouth is.

Burry has taken direct short positions on Palantir and expanded his put options on Nvidia, Oracle, and semiconductor ETFs. He's betting that the AI boom, which has driven so much of the market's gains, is a bubble waiting to burst.

AI, IPOs, and the Echoes of 1999

SpaceX's IPO fits perfectly into Burry's thesis.

Here's a company that:

• Went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation
• Raised $75 billion, the largest IPO in history
• Surged to $2.8 trillion in days
• Is unprofitable with slowing revenue growth

Does that remind you of anything?

Cisco in 2000. Pets.com. The dot-com bubble.

Burry sees the parallels. He's been explicit about them. And he's positioning himself for what he believes is an inevitable reckoning.

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SpaceX's Financial Reality vs. Market Hype

Let's step back from Burry for a moment and look at SpaceX's actual numbers.

Starlink: The Real Cash Cow

Starlink is SpaceX's crown jewel. In 2025, it generated $11.39 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income. It serves 10.3 million subscribers across more than 160 countries.

In Q1 2026, Starlink generated close to $3.3 billion in revenue, about 69% of SpaceX's total $4.7 billion quarterly revenue.

Those are strong numbers. No question.

But here's the catch: Starlink's average revenue per user (ARPU) is declining. It dropped from $99 in 2023 to about $66 in Q1 2026.

That's a warning sign. Starlink is growing its subscriber base, but each user is paying less.

The Losses No One Talks About

Now let's look at the other side of the ledger.

SpaceX's rocket launch division, the one that has cornered the global market, only brought in about $4.1 billion in 2025. That's less than a third of what Starlink generated.

And Starship development? SpaceX spent $3 billion on Starship in 2025 and $930 million in Q1 2026.

Meanwhile, xAI is burning roughly $1 billion per month with minimal revenue.

Add it all up, and SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026.

Let me say that again: $4.28 billion in losses. In one quarter.

That makes SpaceX the only publicly traded company over $1 trillion in market cap that isn't generating profit.

Now, I'm not saying SpaceX is a bad company. It's not. Elon Musk has built something extraordinary. But extraordinary companies can still be overvalued. And $2.8 trillion for a money-losing business with declining ARPU and massive capital expenditures?

That's a lot of faith in the future.

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What This Means for Investors

So what should you do with all this information?

Should You Follow Burry's Lead?

Burry is one of the most successful investors of his generation. He called the housing crash. He's been right about a lot of things.

But he's also been early. Very early.

He warned about the dot-com bubble before it popped. He warned about the housing crash before it happened. He's been warning about the current AI bubble for months.

Being early and being wrong feel the same in the short term.

If you buy puts on SpaceX today, you might watch the stock go to $300 before it crashes. Could you handle that? Would you hold on?

Burry can. He has the capital, the patience, and the conviction.

Most retail investors don't.

The Case for Patience

Burry's approach to SpaceX is instructive:

He's waiting.

He's not rushing in. He's not trying to catch the exact top. He's watching the options chain, waiting for volatility to drain, and looking for a better entry point.

"With any luck SPCX will settle up here in the mid-$200s, and vol will drain out of put option chain."

That's the mindset of a professional. Not trying to be first. Trying to be right.

For the average investor, the lesson is clear:

You don't have to trade everything. Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all.

If you think SpaceX is overvalued, you can:

1. Avoid the stock – Don't buy it. Let others chase the momentum.
2. Wait for better options pricing – When volatility subsides, puts will get cheaper.
3. Look for hedges – If you hold other tech stocks, consider broad market puts rather than single-stock bets.

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Sometimes the Best Trade Is No Trade

Michael Burry sees a bubble. He sees a company valued at $2.8 trillion with less than $20 billion in revenue and billions in losses. He's tempted to bet against it. He's very tempted.

But he's not doing it. Not yet.

Why? Because the options are too expensive. Because he'd rather wait for the volatility to settle. Because he knows that being right isn't enough, you have to be right at the right price.

"Tempted by that one. But no thank you."

There's a lesson in those six words for all of us.

In a market driven by FOMO, by meme stocks, by AI mania and trillion-dollar IPOs, the most powerful thing you can do is sometimes... nothing.

Wait. Watch. Let the noise settle.

And when the opportunity is right, then you strike.

What's your take on SpaceX's valuation? Are you buying, shorting, or sitting on the sidelines like Burry? Drop a comment below, I'd love to hear your perspective.